The best scenario for Russia would be a return to low-intensity conflict in Donbas, but Ukraine may not be inclined to let Russians hang around in their country after the atrocities the Russian forces committed,” the former CIA analyst told Sandboxx News.V-J Day, August 14, 1945, is the day the Japanese surrendered, ending World War II. That locks Russian leaders into continued hostility toward Ukraine. Patrushev is more hawkish than Putin, and there is already a Crimea consensus that it’s Russia. “It’s unclear who would take power if Putin were out of the picture. The May 9 festivities will offer him an opportunity to reassert his power within the Kremlin. From the start of his reign, he has made sure to control the oligarchs and siloviki, a ring of politicians close to the Kremlin. I will be happy to be wrong, but there is almost no Russian official who could accomplish this move and no sign they would want to do so when Putin and his war remain generally popular,” van Landingham said.Ī destroyed Russian mechanized column. However, the likelihood of a coup d’état is rather small, considering how well Putin has worked over the years to insure himself from such an occurrence. Recent reports have also indicated that a coup might be brewing in the Kremlin. Related: Russia has already lost the Ukraine war Palace coup? “My guess is Putin will continue the operation as is to try to consolidate holdings in Donbas before seeking a cease-fire,” van Landingham added. A complete victory there would give Putin something to celebrate on May 9. However, since yesterday, the Russian military is storming the Azovstal plant. He ordered that the Russian troops surround but not attack the industrial complex. This miles-long industrial complex is a true fortress.Ī few days ago, Putin declared victory in Mariupol despite continued resistance from the Ukrainian forces in the Azovstal plant.

The last Ukrainian defenders have holed up in the vast Azovstal steelworks plant. The southern Ukrainian port city has been under siege by Russian forces for over a month. Kyiv also claims to have destroyed thousands of vehicles and weapons platforms, including 2,686 armored personnel carriers, 1,926 vehicles, 1,110 tanks, 199 fighter, attack, and bomber jets, and 502 artillery pieces. As of May 6, the Ukrainian military claims to have killed almost 25,000 Russian troops and wounded or captured thrice that number. The incompetence of the Russian military has resulted in extreme losses of men and equipment.

A declaration of war could allow for mobilization, but Russia is still faced with materiel and training issues,” former CIA Russia analyst Michael E. Victory Day seems like a poor time to declare war, which you previously have minimized as a special operation. “I doubt reports Putin will declare war on 9 May. But in reality, the Russian military is already scraping the barrel trying to supply its frontline troops with the necessary tools to fight. Much has been said about the vast reserves of the Russian military, with reports claiming that Moscow has 10,000 tanks in reserve ready for war once called upon. A mobilization might give the Kremlin men to fight, but it won’t necessarily give it the weapons and vehicles to fight effectively. However, from a military point of view, that scenario isn’t likely because it wouldn’t necessarily help the Russian military in the field. The Red Square in Moscow on May 9 is a vibrant place.

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